OT - the Delta and Booster Thing

Re: Well said

David Weaver

"no, the rule is due to the Dead-o-crats and Deceased-i-cans. All 700,000 of them. But it's a little too late for them, so the rule is really to keep us from joining them".

personally have enjoyed riding elevators by myself the last year and a half!

Re: Well said

TomD

And therefor he would act violently. Who is the bigot again?

Re: Frankly...

TomD

"This post and others like it scare the bejeebers out of me.

We have "armchair epidemiologists" drawing conclusions from questionable studies (not peer reviewed, low sample sizes, etc.) and coming up with some very scary advice.

Please folks, don't act on this kind of stuff. Ask a respected doctor about any course you might follow. There is just too much bad advice in the media."

I agree you should not act from internet advice.

The rule making authorities actually don't share your view on doctors, however. They don't want you to consult a doctor, and get their advice. They are blocking doctors from prescribing as they normally would. Large and small groups of doctors are popping up in the US to deal with this interference in the role of the doctor, and their right to practice.

Asking doctors is OK if you have some particular condition you are aware of, and that they could advise on, but doctors are not experts on cures, they just prescribe what they are told to by the book. Or they can venture off-label, but not easily in this case.

Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects

TomD

"The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the UK's drug watchdog, has yet to accept any link between Covid jabs and menstrual issues but Dr Victoria Male, a lecturer in reproductive immunology at Imperial College London, has called for further research following the reports by more than 30,000 women in Britain. The issues including an irregular menstrual cycle and painful periods were reported in the UK up to September 2. Most women said their menstruation went back to normal after one disrupted cycle. The period problems were noted down after women got either the Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Moderna vaccines. Data on the number of period problems following vaccination was collected from the MHRA's Yellow Card Scheme, which keeps a record of every case of a potential side effect. But this data is reliant on women coming forward, meaning the 30,000 figure could be the tip of the iceberg."

Menstrual cycle issues can include post menopausal menstruation, and that can be an indication of cancer. None of this is proven, nor would one expect it to be, that is why vaccine approval for normal vaccines takes on average 12 years.

In the case of the US VAERS system which is also based on self reporting, reports are underreported by 10-100X, according to a study that was done by the CDC, and Harvard. Peer reviewed.

Doesn't

Mark Mandell - Gone Round in New Jersey

this group of woodworkers have anything better to talk about?

Perhaps Ellis should open a new board of "Can You Top This?"

(Message Deleted by Poster)

To be fair...

David Weaver

..I thought the comment you mentioned that the fellow made in the elevator was in poor taste.

Suggesting that he was probably carrying a pistol (with an implied assumption that there may have been a threat to your safety) was a little extreme.

Everyone has their suspicions, though, and I get it that it's less about thinking that would actually happen and more frustration because you heard something you didn't like.

(I could see my dad saying something like that to his republican buddies, but he wouldn't say it if he was riding with his democrat buddies - none of them have ever carried a rod on either side of things).

Maybe the biggest shame in all of this is that people (I ride the fence in the middle) make caricatures out of other people based on their fears and assume the worst.

The most likely thing about the guy you're riding with is that you and he could probably get along fine - but both could determine not to, and lots of people seem to think the latter is the better way to go these days. It's such a good feeling in public to say "I don't agree with what you just said, but I think you and I could get along just fine, anyway". I've done that at least a dozen times and it's never turned out badly - it does usually cause people to stop for a second because they're not sure how to respond, but if there's a follow-up conversation, it usually goes something more like "my name is ___, what are you guys in town for, or are you local?" and ends with "take care" or "be well".

(my mother is the opposite side from my dad - noticing that they're both different versions of the same thing has helped me realize that I don't need to burden myself with any of it).

The problem

Bill Tindall, E.Tn.

Is anyone doing woodworking? Had to keep a Woodworking Forum going if no one is doing woodworking. What is there to talk about? I will have work on a bed to post as soon as I get a bridge finished.

(Message Deleted by Poster)

Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem

H Bruce McCrory

Bill, you could elaborate more on the bridge works. There is more to wood work than furniture. I have followed the bits on experts. There must be more of the community aspects.

Re: OT Doesn't

H Bruce McCrory

I find the talk revealing and, am amazed by the civility of the group. We almost certainly need this type of discussion if only to shake out and sort individual concerns. I'm not the only person following the pandemic issues.

pfizer data and persuasive...

David Weaver

..argument to be presented for the 9/20 date set for widespread booster deployment

(they're looking for authorization to boost anyone 6 months out from shot #2)

The basic conclusion:

* side effect profile worse than shot 2 (about a factor of 3, though they don't state it as plainly), but effects resolve

* they excluded anyone with previous covid, but if you read between the lines, such individuals would be a problem because they'd show antibody levels that would make the results less favorable

* the group is very small (relatively) given the expected deployment (the sample group is a little over 300 individuals)

* the sample group excluded anyone over 55 (why?), but they concluded that information could be extrapolated to individuals over 55. Exclusion of the part of the population who would benefit most is odd, but a guess at this point would be that a younger study cohort has less chance of serious adverse reactions that couldn't be attributed to something else.

It's a little puzzling why they wouldn't focus more on outcomes rather than measures that aren't outcomes, but their job is to put together a convincing data set, and we'll get outcomes data from israel soon enough.

I expect that CDC will recommend widespread boosters after this is presented (if we're betting at lloyds, we'll hear that there were some dissenting opinions but overall the CDC makes a definitive conclusion - especially since the dissenting opinions aren't at the top of the food chain on this one).

Likely conclusion for someone on the sideline (see your doctor if you don't like mine) - expect a greater chance of some pain from side effects, but also likely that covid chance of catching and hospitalization should be less after the boost (especially if you've never had covid previously).

The statistics for prevention of both against delta trail those gleaned from the retrospective study in israel for individuals who had any vaccine plus real covid, but the trick is still that you have to have real covid (which I'm OK with after vax, but I understand why others may not be).

Moderna states that they have good data showing less effectiveness for the original test group vs. those who weren't in the test group (or as they described it, those 13 months out from vaccination vs. about .

I am puzzled, though, why something that stands to generate about $15B in revenue couldn't study more than 300 individuals, measure actual outcomes, and include the part of the population who stands to benefit the most from the boost.

Does roofing count?

John in NM

We grabbed a short dry spell in the summer monsoon to strip off a badly installed metal roof along with the 55 year old shingles underneath and put on a nice new metal roof (complete with valleys that don't look like a skidder tire tread )

The trouble with woodworking posts for me is that I make the same stuff over and over. I do have a short video of flush cutting the top of a grip with a router table. I may have posted that already, I don't remember.

Isn't this how we got here?

John in NM

I have little doubt the guy was offensive, and combative, but Tom was not. Your reply to Tom was escalatory - and I'm not trying to be overly critical, just pointing out what I see.

So basically, one nutjob in the elevator hands you license to dismiss everyone who disagrees with your position, even when they attempt to do so reasonably. This in turn gives the nutjobs license to rave about their rights, etc, when they see otherwise reasonable people dismissing everyone who disagrees with them.

I find those guys tiresome too. But then I also find nutjobs of all stripes tiresome. Just something we have to live with, like viruses, twitter, wars, and unfunny comedy. We don't have to make it worse by lumping people who attempt to disagree reasonably in with the nutjobs.

Where did these data come from?

Bill Tindall, E.Tn.

I want a specific reference to the primary publication, for these data are contrary to what I have received.

I will provide more details

Bill Tindall, E.Tn.

let me get organized and take some more pictures. I am happy to supply data on anything of interest. Will you be more specific as to what you are interested in?

File and preliminary israeli data

David Weaver

https://www.fda.gov/media/152161/download

It appears to be from Pfizer. Because of the short time frame and small numbers, it appears to shift around:

* comparing protection by duration early on (stating that protection is 26% better for shots 1 and 2 more recent vs. less)

* discussing a substudy to measure relevant antibodies

* and then a separate study (n just over 300 with something like 268 remaining in the final data) with more resolution about antibody response and side effect profile

(most of the side effects are basically temporary discomfort - as one would expect, but as mentioned, the censored age group is odd - at least it should seem odd when the initial very small substudy referred to had older and younger groups, both).

Preliminary israeli data for boost, though:

* 39% efficacy for the non-boosted individuals (I think this is delta related, but probably so are materially all of their cases)

* 86% efficacy for boosted individuals.

that statistic was for subjects age 60 and over.

The numbers are a little at odds with our delta numbers (efficacy for pfizer is reported to be high 70s or low 80s% vs. the 39% figure for israel).

Prior to the retrospective study for delta (which suggests far less hospitalization in israel for individuals who had covid at some point, and half of that again for those who had less covid plus any vaccine vs. those with two shots of pfizer), there was a separate study in the US (Kentucky?) that suggested individuals who had only covid fared worse than those with two vaccine shots - but that was pre-delta time range.

Viewed in isolation, 86% to 39% for boosted vs. non over age 60 is pretty convincing for that cohort.

Re: pfizer data and persuasive...

Bill Tindall, E.Tn.

I am puzzled, though, why something that stands to generate about $15B in revenue couldn't study more than 300 individuals, measure actual outcomes, and include the part of the population who stands to benefit the most from the boost.

That is an easy call. The data Israel agreed to provide was better than what bringing only 3000 Phase 3 trial participants into a 3rd shot trial would provide. Outcomes were measured from the Israel data. The Phase 3 participants role was to provide antibody data and whatever else could be gleaned from blood analysis.

And everything I have seen including the link you provided says the 3rd shot triggers the same or less reaction than the 2nd. Since I had a raging fever after round 2 I was interested that fever was less in round 3.

As I said before, if/when Pfizer decides to offer a 3rd shot to the Trial participants I will take it.

Re: pfizer data and persuasive...

Clint Searl

I'm 81 with expected immunocompromised conditions. I received the Moderna duo in Jan/Feb. I received the Pfizer booster three days ago. No side effects. It's plain stupid not to get it.

at 81...

David Weaver

you're in the group of individuals who should receive the booster based on israeli data (but I'm not a dr. so even though it looks to me like a good idea for you, it's only a data-related thing to me).

It's not as clear for lower ages (we tend to have milder illness, more significant side effects as far as the vaccines go - even more so for kids, which is somewhat concerning), as we have some things to consider for the long term (like the fact that every group so far that's had covid and the vaccine fares better than those who have just had one or the other).

For those of us younger, there's another simple consideration - there may be a variant that's rougher on us, and there's no guarantee it won't be in the next 4 or 6 months. I'd prefer if getting boosted at this point (of course the data could change my mind) not to be in a "cooling off period" from a prior booster that has poor efficacy.

we love..

David Weaver

...I can't speak for everyone, but I find the one-off kind of start to finish posts about something I'll probably never do really interesting.

Bill shoulders a whole lot of the load posting about woodworking stuff.

Re: I will provide more details

William Duffield

Are you making any progress on design or construction of benches and bike racks?

side effects...

David Weaver

..I didn't go back and compare old data to the group of 300, but they provided the information about lymph node reactions being much higher.

Look forward to hearing of your experience with shot 3. I had very little response to #2, as mentioned, but my mrs. had chills, fever, a significant fatigue.

I razzed her some before shot 2 "i don't feel like having side effects, so I'm not going to" after her experience, and she was just anticipating celebrating how wrong I would be and then not much of anything.

She actually had persistent chills even from the first shot. If I get #3, i'm sure she'll get it before I do. If there was a chance to get 8 shots, she'd do it.

I'm hoping for a mild case of covid instead before I even get the chance to decide, but if I were (I don't know how old you are) over 60, I wouldn't be saying that.

Will post

Bill Tindall, E.Tn.

bench will be the most simple bench I can make which will be replaced by a donor bench when we find a deep pocketed donor. Bike rack design is lifted from the bike shop in town that uses the rack for displaying inventory. Takes up little room which is most desirable.

Re: I will provide more details

H Bruce McCrory

Bill, just the fact you are doing a major community project is well worth recounting as inspiration for other communities that have similar ideas. It is definitely of article caliber, locally, or in publication.

Your nuts-and-bolts procedures were a common sense and economy approach to completing a substantial effort. That is something unseen in modern projects. We only see the costly glitz and glamour and horrific improvement bonds that drag down similar projects and likely curtails any expansion efforts.