Linear interpolation to zero-intercept: The End?

What I'm hearing is that there's really not much hope for WC if viewed as a business venture.

I get that advertisers want a more secure return on their dollars these days and that basing their choices on data analysis really does work on average.  It's a pity though, since so many of our stand by information sources over my lifetime never would have existed in today's data driven media world.   How many of us learned a great deal of our woodworking inspired by Fine Woodworking, Popular Woodworking, and other magazines?  I know that FWW in particular probably never would have put out their first issue in a data analytics driven ad environment.  The human race and it's body of knowledge advance due to creativity and bold gambles as opposed to analytics.  But I guess that is beside the point.

It's ironic to me, the internet is "forever" when it's an embarrassing photo or sound clip from a celebrity or politician, but it's surprisingly temporary when it comes to forums and knowledge.  I have to wonder if the fluid nature of the substantial knowledge presented by the internet writ large will ultimately be it's downfall, and what started as an opportunity to have an online encyclopedia of everything will be eventually viewed as a weird combination of a supermarket tabloid and that same supermarket's free coupon flier..... no, wait.  The flier is useful.  I know, a combination of tabloid and the home shopping network..... except for the few useful forums that I still view, this is roughly how I see the internet.

the transition for forums has become value as a database, but more current value for posts, members, resident advertisers. As the app-based multi subject and less friendly sites like facebook, reddit, etc, took traffic (reddit is really a dump if you let it get away from friendly topical sections, which it likes to try to do - get you into rage por n and that kind of crap. I haven't read facebook or anything else of that sort in more than 15 years, so I don't know if it does the same. 

But, regardless, the youth - including on the subreddits that are more hobby in nature - does not have high aspirations for making things and the sport has become trading recommended gurus with near zero "this is what I do and this is why and here are the results". 

so, not surprisingly, capitalized groups bought most of the forums and oriented them to spam non-members coming off of google search. Just as this is in full swing, I suppose, as a way for those forums to remain online, albeit with obnoxious ownership that begs for money and pretends to be something other than the for profit conglomerates they are...

.....making the forums attractive to google has made them easy for AI to index and I would bet we will seen see a very fast decline in site traffic the way news and topical (not forum) sites have seen a huge decline in traffic as AI rewords whatever it finds on sites and curtails the user ever traveling away from it. Google search even does this, and apparently in AI mode (didn't use it yet, but listening to gamers nexus talk about application of fair use), doesn't provide a cite at all - it just uses data that it's snagged and prevents traffic from ever going to it. 

this kind of greed is right down google's alley, so no surprise. Same with facebook and same with microsoft. I have a feeling sites that aren't purely sales outlets will diminsh and be replaced by fake AI created sites. It's the biggest theft of intellectual capital in our lifetime until or unless the government writes legislation that prevents automated complete theft while claiming fair use.

I charted this trend years ago, by the way, when accused of "killing this forum" by talking about toolmaking in the hand tools area. It was a bunch of stupid fingerpointing at the time with complete obliviousness about what's actually happening everywhere. 

First, the low traffic phpbb forums went away, and then a lot of good topical forums like this one were clearly on the way to flatline and all one had to do was take an age survey (and we did!). And I found out I was arguing with a lot of people who were 75-90, which I never anticipated and felt a little guilty about. Not because of a difference in intellect, but a difference in desire by age cohort, as well as maybe stamina. But that instantly highlighted the issue - and when you see it that clearly, youth isn't showing up. Even SMC, which is - my opinion - intentionally dumbed down and has lost most of its shooting star type members over 20 years, same things - just at different scales. the group of users are nice people, but the group of people who remain aren't making much, and their discussion is going nowhere - it's probably the familiarity and safety that allows it to keep going along like an escort pony with no overdrive and no passenger side mirror. 

By the way, not trying to win an argument about which fingerpointer was right when mentioning the above, I already knew the trend of things at that point, just wasn't so aware of the age component until sometime in the middle of it. nearing 50, i'm totally getting the wanting to stay somewhere comfortable and not have much change, and even AI for me has been limited to use finding obscure things only. 

Blacksmith, knife forums, etc - the ones that have any remaining traffic are captive sales mills and cater to the lowest common denominator. Everything has it's time, I guess, and it's interesting to see what's gone on. There are seemingly more classes being offered than ever, and instead of a cranky old a-hole operating the course, who won't refund tuition if a student has a close relative die (happened to a coworker of mine who signed up for a course a state over from here!!), you get glowing kind of squishy classes from unaccomplished, or someone who can make something nice but would far rather teach students. Their making nice is more realistically there just to attract the students and the environment is "friendly" sometimes with a witty attempt - it's made to attract everyone, including people who really won't pick anything up after they leave the course. 

Does it matter? It matters to the sites, I guess. We had plenty of supposedly long-running hobbyists here who I have seen quoting Rex what's his face or Jay something or other, which is just mind boggling. I guess forums were entertainment for them. Forums had a motive - to get an audience friendly for advertisers and pay the bills, but I'm sure the members eventually become an overfished pond. Youtube is just so powerful in keeping people doing nothing, but providing content, and the shill content is 100 times higher, but too is the audience defending that their shill isn't really a shill - they just have 40 affiliate token links and something sponsored in every video because they're "passionate, but they'd be here without it anyway......recommending the next wipe on finish or sharpening guide or stones....for the 30th time for each".

From Forums to Social Networks: The Rise, Fall, and Future of Woodworking Communities

For many of us, forums used to be the beating heart of the internet. Every niche had a place to gather, debate, and share knowledge. Threads, post counts, and signatures gave structure and personality to communities. But over the past decade, forums have largely been replaced by social networks—and woodworking forums are no exception.

Why forums declined:

• Convenience: One account gives access to multiple communities. No need to learn new software or manage separate logins.

• Real-time interaction: Social networks provide instant notifications and live feeds, while forums remain asynchronous.

• Mobile-first design: Social networks work seamlessly on smartphones; many forums do not.

• Social validation: Likes, reactions, and shares give immediate feedback, which forums cannot match.

• Network effects: Everyone is already on Facebook, Reddit, or Discord, making it easier for new users to migrate there.

WoodCentral.com: From Forum Pioneer to Quiet Corner

WoodCentral once stood as the premier destination for woodworking enthusiasts. Its forums were bustling hubs for advice, discussion, and camaraderie. Today, forum activity is a shadow of its former self, with far fewer new posts and much lower engagement.

Fragmentation of the Woodworking Community

Another factor is fragmentation. Unlike a decade ago, there is no single “go-to” woodworking forum anymore. Enthusiasts now scatter across:

• Niche sites for specific tools, styles, or techniques.

• Social media groups and subreddits.

• YouTube comment sections and Discord servers.

This division dilutes participation on any one platform. WoodCentral competes not just with other forums but with platforms offering speed, multimedia, and instant engagement. Threads that once generated dozens of replies may now get only a handful—or none.

Options for the Future: Revival, Archive, or Hybrid

WoodCentral now faces a critical choice:

1. Attempt a Revival

• Update mobile design and site speed.

• Add engagement features like notifications, likes, or multimedia integration.

• Promote the community to new users through social media or partnerships.

2. Archive Mode

• Preserve existing threads as a searchable resource.

• Prevent new posts, reducing moderation and maintenance.

• Maintain the forum’s legacy as a knowledge base for future woodworking enthusiasts.

3. Hybrid Approach: Both Archive and Active Forum

• Existing content remains searchable and preserved.

• Dedicated members can still post, keeping a small, active community alive.

• Sections could gradually move to archive mode while others remain open for discussion.

• Expectations are clear: growth is not the goal, but engagement and preservation coexist.

Sustainability and Income

Whatever approach is chosen, WoodCentral also needs to consider sustainability. The site should ideally generate enough income to cover at least domain registration and hosting costs. Options could include modest membership fees, advertising, affiliate links, or sponsorships targeted at woodworking enthusiasts. Without covering basic costs, even an archival or hybrid site risks becoming a financial burden for the owner.

Conclusion

Forums didn’t disappear because they were bad—they simply couldn’t compete with the speed, convenience, and scale of social networks. For WoodCentral, the challenge now is deciding whether to revive activity, preserve the archive, or adopt a hybrid model—while also ensuring the site can sustain itself financially. Either way, the goal remains the same: preserving and sharing decades of woodworking knowledge with the community.

Yes, this was generated with the help of AI, based on my ongoing discussions about independent websites versus social networks. I asked it to create a categorized summary in my “serious” writing style, which it handles very well. Organization is something I often struggle with—I tend to overthink and second-guess how to structure my thoughts. AI excels at this, making it a huge time-saver for me.

I think the analysis of the decline of forums misses the mark really - not seeing the forest for all those individual trees.  True points yet not describing the bigger picture.

The big picture is that the consumer changed.  The new consumer of online information wants all those things, those of us hanging on to the forum format generally do not.  It's a pickle to be sure, I don't have an answer for you.

John in NM wrote:

I think the analysis of the decline of forums misses the mark really - not seeing the forest for all those individual trees.  True points yet not describing the bigger picture.

The big picture is that the consumer changed.  The new consumer of online information wants all those things, those of us hanging on to the forum format generally do not.  It's a pickle to be sure, I don't have an answer for you.

Pretty much what I said less clearly in 5000 words. it's a matter of when, not if. I think AI chances a real situation that could happen where it attempts to prevent people from communicating to each other much at all, for the benefit of its creators and then eventually itself, but we'll see how fast. 

I bit my tongue earlier and didn't say that the chart looks like the log transform would be linear!

I was along for the ride much of that! But for a long time, we didn't notice it. When a forum has 500 posts a week and drops to 400, it's like noticing a 600 pound friend lost 100 pounds. 

when the forum gets to 75 a week "sound the alarm. the ship's on the bottom of the ocean. We need to turn on the bilge pumps!!". 

there were little bounces along the way, but I was pretty miserable as traffic dropped like many others were - there was a lot of filler material posted on here like all forums, but earlier on, there was a pretty well accomplished core group of people who would have lively discussions and for the interested, that kind of thing is just great. 

At a certain point when traffic drops enough, all that's left is finger pointing. Once things have gotten to that level, there really is no fix - but John already nailed it, it's a change in tastes. the group that was here could not have weathered a reddit like situation where the answer to everything is paul sellers or james wright video links. 

Reddit flips from logarithmic to exponential (bad statistics joke - the crowd there is memoryless, and no matter what happens today, it won't influence what happens on reddit tomorrow. the steady state of nothing is created on purpose because it's most the most profitable and the constant churn of nothingness prevents most people from developing any grudges.