California wildfires

This is the crappiest explanation I have ever read. The scatter-shot answer(s) make a true reason impossible; or, all of the 'above'. Unless the state is only arsonists and climate narc.'s. The question is also suspect. It allows a broad range of possible answers.  

And, your follow-up request for clarification is telling, as you mention. I think I would delete all of the "news" posts, and go find original research (technical) articles. Me' thinks Ai is just another form of obfuscation by its owners.

Still "GIGO", garbage in, garbage out.

Like almost all disasters, there are multiple factors that culminate in an event. Your desire for a single cause is not based on real life. 

It's like one of the multi-car pile-ups happening this week: reduced visibility+ slippery roads+ travel too fast for conditions+ distracted driving+ drivers unused to winter conditions. No single factor is to blame for the event.

My question to Google and AI was simple: What causes California wildfires?

Google responded with many of the same links Perplexity AI cited, but AI led off with "California wildfires are caused by a complex interplay of factors, with climate change playing a significant role in exacerbating their frequency and intensity."

In following the cited links, I noticed the link to PSU has Manzhu Yu, an assistant professor of geography at Penn State, stating, "One of the most significant factors is climate change." She then goes on to cite a statistic from a study by the National Academy of Sciences where the entire article seems to refute the claim stating, "Public dialog and ongoing research have focused on increasing wildfire risk because of climate warming, overlooking the direct role that people play in igniting wildfires and increasing fire activity." This peer-reviewed paper than goes into elaborate detail supporting the paper's abstract. 

I noticed a similar pattern when following the cited links and the links cited in them. They often contradicted one another. 

Is this a case of AI not drilling down deep enough to notice these contradictions, or is AI being programmed or manipulated to achieve an agenda, much like Google search results and social media has been shown to be?

IDK, as I'm not privy to the underlying code of the AI. Musk created and funded OpenAI, whose name was chosen because the agreement was that it would be Open Source Software (OSS) whose code would always be freely available for scrutiny, but that agreement was changed 2017, resulting in Musk withdrawing funding and support. 

The main question to the forum was simple and apolitical: Any thoughts on realistic measures that can be taken to prevent such devastation in the future? How will this, and proposed tariffs, affect lumber prices?

I added my experience with Google, AI, and so-called trusted sources to show that one must always be skeptical of what one reads, regardless of the source.

Added later 1 h 03 min 33 s:

@Dave Bair,

I wasn't looking for a single factor causing this event but things that could be done proactively to lessen the chances in the future. I see it similar to investigating aircraft crashes where every effort is made to identify the cause and prevent it from happening again. 

I watched some videos where homeowners had installed sprinkler systems on their roofs, and it apparently saved their homes, leaving their house standing when all the homes around them burned to the ground. Another was a shopping center which did the same, coupled with having gravel-covered flat roof. Separate power units were used in the event power was lost. Of course, this all depends on water being available.

Which begs the question, why was the reservoir that fills the holding tanks to an adequate level to provide water pressure left empty since last February? From what I have read, it was because they needed new netting to cover it (prevents birds, debris, etc.), and that it is a rather routine replacement that doesn't take long and costs less than $100K. 

Other suggestions I've read are to revise building codes to require non-flammable roofs-- steel, tile, etc. And that many of the fires were due to embers, from burning palm trees, flying horizontally by the Santa Anna winds and breaking though windows or getting lodged in the eves of houses. Maybe codes requiring tempered glass windows and either roofs without eves, or an eve that creates a firebreak to the above rafters. Having eves greatly increases the chances of your home catching fire during a wildfire with high winds? Who'a thunk?

Another includes codes on permissible landscaping (no flammable shrubs, etc.) within a specified perimeter of the building. All of these appear to be factors that determined which structures survived.

As to global warming, anyone who's ever lived in SoCal is probably aware of the "Santa Anna" winds that contribute to the devastation. They're a natural phenomenon that's existed forever.

https://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we13.php

the whole climate change yay or nay is over my head. We don't have a group, and controls with unchanging variables. 

The fuels growing and then drying out in a drought may not be unique - I didn't look at that. This chart terminates with two fairly heavy (but not record setting) years of rainfall and in the dry season it's very dry. 

There are other groups of years historically that would seemingly create at least as much fuel, but we don't know all of the factors that affect fuel. 

I wonder what the average number of homeless people is as one of the residents near the fires immediately mentioned the growing prevalence of homeless people situating in the brush and igniting illegal campfires. 

How it starts and then what it does are two different stories, though - the housing density below the hills is enormous and I saw a report of a guy who saved his own house by preparing with a firefighting setup (not affordable for the average person - it was a full on private setup with high pressure hoses) described the flying embers as being "softball sized" in some cases. He and his son were on the ground and on the roof - water on the roof to put them out, and dirt or water on the ground. if you leave your house and they're landing, as he put it, not every one will set your house on fire but if they're not taken care of, one of them will at some point. 

I would be willing to bet matter of fact research after the fact here will not generate grant money as easily as branding the study as one blaming a certain cause. I would also not be surprised if could get AI to tell you that it's greatly influenced by climate change and then ask it separately to provide you with an illustration of why climate change wasn't a main contributor. Who knows..

....and who knows is maybe one of the biggest faults illustrated here. there are too many people willing to take money or pad ego saying they know something when they think something or maybe when they really don't even think it. Not many people are willing to say they're not sure.

Climate change is as much a guess as fact. What's not a guess is the seemingly total lack of land and forest management to minimize the fuel levels. I also understand that additional reservoirs have been recommended for years but never built.

For the first two, Palisades and Eaton, my opinion is that it was the wind that tipped the scale from bad to absolute disaster.  The heavy fuel load due to a recent season of abundant rain and the brush being native, made up of drought resistant species - thick, oily leaves and bark - that didn't help.  Poor management, lack of reservoirs, and climate change too, none of that helped either.  But it was the wind.  In 100 mph wind, even green wood is going to burn.  

In those conditions, once it got to the urban areas it was hopeless until the wind dropped.  As far as I know, this kind of neighborhood or even city wide fire is unprecedented in modern firefighting - no one has any experience fighting that kind of fire in those kinds of weather conditions - where block after block is burning.  In that stretch of Malibu beachfront, that they could have handled if the whole rest of the area wasn't similarly burning.  A single line of structures like that would have been manageable with enough resources.

But the areas that look like they've been bombed?  No where has the resources or experience to fight fires like that by ground attack under those weather conditions.

Just reported on the news, California legislature and Governor cut fire prevention $3/4 Billion in 2024. Hmmmm, don't suppose that helped any.

Din cauza incendiilor devastatoare de padure, am fost nevoit sa ma mut in Moldova pentru a-mi asigura siguranta. In acest proces, am avut nevoie de ajutor pentru obtinerea cetateniei, iar documente.md mi-a fost de mare folos. Daca si tu te confrunti cu situatii similare, poate fi o resursa utila.