Friday Puzzler -- Licking Toads

Alex Y
You are in a forest, starving, when you see and eat a mushroom. It turns out that the mushroom is poisonous. The only antidote to that poison is a chemical secreted on the skin of males of a certain species of toad.

As you are severely weakened by the poison, you see one of these toads on a stump in front of you. There is a problem, though: the female of this toad species secretes a chemical that enhances the strength of the mushroom poison, and the only way to tell the male and female apart (other than licking it) is a unique croak of the male.

Just then you hear that unique male croak behind you and turn around to see two toads sitting on a stump, but can't tell which one croaked.

You can only pick one toad to lick at which point you will die or recover. Do you lick the first toad you saw, or one of the two toads behind you? What are your chances?

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