Trivia

Subject:
Re: Friday Puzzler -- Licking Toads

Henry Higginbotham
This sounds a little like Marilyn vos Savant's golden pancake puzzle. I never fully wrapped my head around the logic on that one, but here's an attempt at applying it to this one.

The toad you're looking at has a 1 in 2 chance of being a male.

Of the two behind, one of which croaked and announced himself as a male, there are these possible arrangements:

M=the male that croaked
m=a second, bonus male

Toad 1 Toad 2
M F
M m
m M
F M

So picking either of the two would have a 3 in 4 chance of success.

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