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Subject:
Re: agree with what wiley said...

David Weaver
That's not something I've seen (45%). If it's the case, it's probably a suggestion that more should be tried.

The death rates disappeared almost entirely as soon as the shots were offered in WA state - including at later ages.

We'll see what comes of delta when more data is released, but through august 5th or so in the US, there were 2050 vaccinated deaths against 100 times that or more over the span where vaccinations started.

There could be some unfairness in counting that, but we can go to local info to poll and see if it seems reasonable. A few in the neighborhood here lost grandparents and parents due to covid. Not a lot, but some. Since vaccines, I haven't even met someone who has had a breakthrough case (I'm sure there are plenty - under age 50, they're 5% of the cases in the largest local health system, so there's probably dozens or hundreds who have been hospitalized). but I don't know of anyone, and those of us who have been "shot" twice are being pretty careless about where we go and what we do.

(I went and looked at the CDC data for older individuals - 76% effectiveness across the three for age 75+ - this is updated data including delta. 95% for moderna, 80% for pfizer and 60% for J&J to make up that total number).

Death rates suggested in recent state data sets 10 to 29 times less likely to have a death involving covid if vaccinated. This seems a little low, but who knows. Early data was about 100 to 1, but that assumes the data is accurate enough to differentiate 50 to 1 vs. 100 to 1 or whatever. Don't know for sure. The CDC does have sortable nominal data, but I don't have the time to take it and see if rates can be made from it (nothing is ever simple taking various statistics as there's no guarantee that all of the data is clear - e.g., if there is death information for patients dying from pneumonia, but they didn't get tested for covid - then what.....next step is to determine underlying expected pneumonia rates. Lots of busy work. I tend to rely on excess mortality as it's generally stable at a percent or two +/-.

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