Messages

Subject:
Hi, Johanna...

David Weaver
This topic was only comparing people who had been vaccinated with a look forward to the potential long-term immunity (effectively, what will it take to eliminate covid in general).

A study has come out of israel comparing a bunch of different groups (I've already forgotten the full set of details, but from it, I saw this)
* individuals who had covid previously but no vaccine were 6 to 13 times less likely to get the delta variant vs. individuals who only received the vaccine
* individuals who had covid and one shot of pfizer were half again as likely to get the delta variant (as in, having covid previously plus vaccine made even stronger immunity, so figure 12-26 times less likely to get the delta variant than vaccinated individuals)

I've seen this study spun two different ways:
* "recovered covid patients who refused vaccine punished by being twice as likely to get covid again" (ignoring the fact that the study said they were at least six times less likely to get delta than people who were vaccinated and never had covid).
* "natural immunity better than the vaccine"

Both of those are incomplete, but they show how people will pick what they want out of a data set and use it.

That leads to two questions for me - what is the relative risk for people who got the vaccine first and then got covid as a breakthrough, and what will it be compared to the booster. We don't know this yet, but israel will probably have some data soon. We will eventually, too. The other thing I'd like to know is if the order of covid and vaccine matters. Getting covid without the vaccine is too risky (I was vaccinated as soon as eligible, so it's already for me, personally, not possible, anyway). But I'd also like to know if the effect is as strong for people like me who are not compromised - if we get covid after getting the vaccine.

I don't know if all of that is communicated as well, but the issue is this - if getting a mild case of covid after the vaccine (or even asymptomatic) makes me 6 to 13 times better off against the next variant (6 months down the road), and would do the same for everyone in my household, it's not necessarily a clear case that the booster is the right answer.

Anecdotally, everyone in my extended relatives group who is older had no side effects at all with either shot, and I would bet a breakthrough case is worse for older individuals, so I could very easily see a case where the recommendation isn't the same for different groups. It should take less than a month to start getting preliminary data from israel - that will be valuable.

I think this topic might be too in depth at this point for the forum - but it was worth noting at the outset, because there is potentially a lot of information in the israeli study if it shows to be consistent and then can be duplicated forward-looking picking the individuals in the study group ahead of time so that there's no bias in their picking - just whether or not they choose to get a booster).

Messages In This Thread

OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Ditto *NM*
Re: you guys are welcome...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Agree...
Re: Agree...
In short, probably not worth it...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Nomenclature....
Re: Nomenclature....
Yeah...
the last part is often lost...
My dad is 73...so is my mother...
Re: My dad is 73...so is my mother...
I think at 15 months shy of 90...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Vaccination vs. Get-the-disease
Wrong start here....maybe I wasn't clear...
A bit wider picture
I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
His point is pretty clear...
Recorded vs. actual Covid deaths
Absolutely
excess mortality...
Still missing the point..
Pfizer data
I think.....
Re: Pfizer data
Thank Goodness...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes
measuring the outcomes...
Thanks for a good discussion... *NM*
Re: OT -How(!) memory falters with time
Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
The overall response ...
Re: Not So Amazing, Rather Simple
some of us...
clarity is needed....
not to mention..
That is a distinctly modern effect....
One of the hazards of discussions...
I'm not surprised....
Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
separately..
Re: separately..
Of course.....
Re: Booster versus ... Seminal Work
you're right...
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Hi, Johanna...
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
It bothers me less...
Frankly...
Frankly...
How differences can arise
(Message Deleted by Poster)
:( *NM*
Re: Well said
Re: Well said
(Message Deleted by Poster)
To be fair...
Isn't this how we got here?
This was my point from the outset...
Ditto. *NM*
Re: Frankly...
Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects
Doesn't
The problem
Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem
I will provide more details
Re: I will provide more details
Will post
Re: Will post
Re: I will provide more details
Does roofing count?
we love..
Unfortunately....
Re: OT Doesn't
Well said...
pfizer data and persuasive...
Where did these data come from?
File and preliminary israeli data
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
side effects...
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
at 81...
FDA says no to widespread boost
Re: FDA says no to widespread boost
Alternate link to FDA actions
A good conclusion!!
© 1998 - 2017 by Ellis Walentine. All rights reserved.
No parts of this web site may be reproduced in any form or by
any means without the written permission of the publisher.

WOODCENTRAL, P.O. BOX 493, SPRINGTOWN, PA 18081