Messages

Subject:
you're right...

David Weaver
I anticipated some disagreement, but didn't expect even this discussion to continue to be pointed back to things not related to it (but that has occurred).

What I'm describing, I'm sure is being done in great detail at the CDC to guard against long shots or severe outcomes. But I'd imagine that it goes further - to predictive models that have inputs well beyond the next year or delta, and mu.

I would imagine they know very well how prior cases combinations have held up (relatively) against all of the variants and could likely say right away what the data shows as a bar for the booster (though the remaining unvaccinated cohort has a whole lot more effect on what we see in terms of total influence - that topic is off of my screen - it went political long ago).

I can also understand why the CDC wouldn't release a data tool for individuals to use and model (though it would be nice), because it could be an easy target for misinformation or choosing tiny insignificant data anomalies and claiming that they're a trend.

My initial suspicion was related to side effects, interest in lobbying for a booster, and long term flexibility of the whole community's immune response. Now, there's an article from israel suggesting that having a case of one of the prior variants leads to far better immunity against delta (Which is the point I was making), but that's one study, it's not yet peer reviewed (it appears to be from a university, but you never know) and data elsewhere ought to show the same thing. I'm sure *we* have it in spades, but it's not being discussed (which is different than looked at - I'm sure it's been reviewed). If our information conflicts with the israeli study results, it ought to be made public (but within the comfortable fact from that particular study that none in the "had covid" or vaccinated group died).

My observation of us as a society - on the whole - is that in a situation like this, we'll eventually get the wrong answer. But we won't be afraid to "act fast!", bias decisions and do something that's not the right answer early on because of many different human traits (ego, excessive misplaced empathy, the bias to act vs. observe, etc), and we generally like to wipe it away with "well, we did the best with what we knew at the time, so no big deal".

This thread has pretty much run its course. One of the things I'll be watching is the side effect profile from the booster as I'll be eligible for it very soon.

Messages In This Thread

OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Ditto *NM*
Re: you guys are welcome...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Agree...
Re: Agree...
In short, probably not worth it...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Nomenclature....
Re: Nomenclature....
Yeah...
the last part is often lost...
My dad is 73...so is my mother...
Re: My dad is 73...so is my mother...
I think at 15 months shy of 90...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Vaccination vs. Get-the-disease
Wrong start here....maybe I wasn't clear...
A bit wider picture
I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
His point is pretty clear...
Recorded vs. actual Covid deaths
Absolutely
excess mortality...
Still missing the point..
Pfizer data
I think.....
Re: Pfizer data
Thank Goodness...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes
measuring the outcomes...
Thanks for a good discussion... *NM*
Re: OT -How(!) memory falters with time
Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
The overall response ...
Re: Not So Amazing, Rather Simple
some of us...
clarity is needed....
not to mention..
That is a distinctly modern effect....
One of the hazards of discussions...
I'm not surprised....
Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
separately..
Re: separately..
Of course.....
Re: Booster versus ... Seminal Work
you're right...
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Hi, Johanna...
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
It bothers me less...
Frankly...
Frankly...
How differences can arise
(Message Deleted by Poster)
:( *NM*
Re: Well said
Re: Well said
(Message Deleted by Poster)
To be fair...
Isn't this how we got here?
This was my point from the outset...
Ditto. *NM*
Re: Frankly...
Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects
Doesn't
The problem
Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem
I will provide more details
Re: I will provide more details
Will post
Re: Will post
Re: I will provide more details
Does roofing count?
we love..
Unfortunately....
Re: OT Doesn't
Well said...
pfizer data and persuasive...
Where did these data come from?
File and preliminary israeli data
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
side effects...
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
at 81...
FDA says no to widespread boost
Re: FDA says no to widespread boost
Alternate link to FDA actions
A good conclusion!!
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