Messages

Subject:
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes

David Weaver
Measuring antibodies isn't a useless thing. If someone says they had covid and they test negative for antibodies a short time later, it's kind of an indication that they didn't (I know the tests aren't 100% accurate, but sometimes we have to deal with operating on what's likely as individuals).

The next question is a matter of outcomes and physicians know a whole lot more than I do about how things work, but sometimes you can reason yourself through what you know and come up with something that doesn't match outcomes. At that point, you have two reasonable choices.

Check the data (99% of good study work is making sure that whoever collected the data knew how to collect it so that it would make a good predictor after the fact, and that they also censored, truncated, adjusted for other factors as honestly and materially completely as they can).

If no fault is found with the data, then the next thing is to understand why the result didn't match the prediction.

It doesn't throw out the usefulness of the predictor, either, but it may throw out its usefulness in detecting certain outcomes (for example, we see extremely low death numbers for people who previously had covid - antibodies aren't a good predictor of death, but presence of them may be a great predictor of confirmed low chance of it).

I'm an outcome guy. Call me a dummy, that's kind of what I am. I posit what if scenarios to measure forward, and review information that's in the past. I rely on smart people to provide the why. Bill is a why guy (This is better than being a wise guy in most cases!). Sometimes, when I get a result that I can repeat, Bill will batter me with the why - I like to cede that part and wait for the answer from someone else. But being able to repeat the result is important - anything true can be repeated and I have a severe distaste for folks who say something was true but can't be proven when it's a simple issue.

I read info like bonkers early on (I know I said this already), because I felt it was an obligation not to die or become a burden for my family or cause that for other people. It turns out the thing I was concerned about (mild asthma, but that can lead to bronchitis - and a spastic cough early in the pandemic was especially un-stylish) was less impactful than something I thought was minor (being 205 pounds at 5'9" is a much greater risk than asthma). I hate politics but I was able to make two groups mad by suggesting that H and R (the two drugs that everyone wanted to rely on for a political win) probably wouldn't amount to anything because the Chinese data releases already showed controlled trial results. The MRNA vaccines were (depending on how religious one may be) a gift from above, and that's not to minimize our efforts. They are a gift not so much because they show interim test results to be something, but because my wheelhouse (looking at the data, the outcomes) shows that there's near zero chance that hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people are still alive in the US because of them.

For that, I am thankful.

Messages In This Thread

OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Ditto *NM*
Re: you guys are welcome...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Agree...
Re: Agree...
In short, probably not worth it...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Nomenclature....
Re: Nomenclature....
Yeah...
the last part is often lost...
My dad is 73...so is my mother...
Re: My dad is 73...so is my mother...
I think at 15 months shy of 90...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Vaccination vs. Get-the-disease
Wrong start here....maybe I wasn't clear...
A bit wider picture
I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
His point is pretty clear...
Recorded vs. actual Covid deaths
Absolutely
excess mortality...
Still missing the point..
Pfizer data
I think.....
Re: Pfizer data
Thank Goodness...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes
measuring the outcomes...
Thanks for a good discussion... *NM*
Re: OT -How(!) memory falters with time
Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
The overall response ...
Re: Not So Amazing, Rather Simple
some of us...
clarity is needed....
not to mention..
That is a distinctly modern effect....
One of the hazards of discussions...
I'm not surprised....
Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
separately..
Re: separately..
Of course.....
Re: Booster versus ... Seminal Work
you're right...
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Hi, Johanna...
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
It bothers me less...
Frankly...
Frankly...
How differences can arise
(Message Deleted by Poster)
:( *NM*
Re: Well said
Re: Well said
(Message Deleted by Poster)
To be fair...
Isn't this how we got here?
This was my point from the outset...
Ditto. *NM*
Re: Frankly...
Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects
Doesn't
The problem
Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem
I will provide more details
Re: I will provide more details
Will post
Re: Will post
Re: I will provide more details
Does roofing count?
we love..
Unfortunately....
Re: OT Doesn't
Well said...
pfizer data and persuasive...
Where did these data come from?
File and preliminary israeli data
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
side effects...
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
at 81...
FDA says no to widespread boost
Re: FDA says no to widespread boost
Alternate link to FDA actions
A good conclusion!!
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