Messages

Subject:
excess mortality...
Response To:
Absolutely ()

David Weaver
.the CDC keeps mortality by cause records. I don't know when they'll roll up all of 2020, and maybe they have already, but I would guess that covid deaths are slightly understated. There's no trend to suggest that they're hugely understated in the states.

India is another story - it would appear so far that somewhere around 1 in 10 deaths or fewer have been recorded properly.

Mortality rates outside of something like covid are fantastically stable. If they waver by any significance due to any cause, that cause will show up on the CDC roster.

In the case of something like covid, if you're a betting person, you look through the list of deaths by cause and if you find something unassigned, especially if it's in older groups, you lump it over to covid. ..

....OK, I figured I had to track this down. See figure two down the page here (This is only in 2020, so the covid death count is around half of what it is now).
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm#T1_down

My point with this chart is that you can scale it against other years and see if it looks like other causes have gone up or if covid "stole" the deaths from several others.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf

This is 2019, before covid. There could be some minor leakage from one category to the next (e.g, heart disease cases that would've occurred anyway), but this is pretty tight. Cancer and heart disease don't really change much year to year. I think cancer (don't quote me) death rates decline about 2% per year. Heart disease dropped drastically over the last several decades driven heavily by the decline in smoking, but it's stalled some.

What I'm saying is that if you look at these charts (kind of annoying that one is in nominal terms and the other is in rate terms), it suggests that covid was sort of "dropped in" and other categories don't show a lot of shifting. The death figures are probably slightly understated for covid, but there's no big group that didn't get assigned or got assigned in a pattern that doesn't match pre-covid.

Two mrna shots for all and covid likely doesn't show up on this chart - that's the short term. The question is what moves it off the chart and keeps it off in the long term. Before delta, the answer was "the vaccine". With delta, we don't know (carving out the people who won't get vaccinated despite being in an at risk group - that's for someone else to debate). What spins around in my head is what you can do with the compliant folks (and I'm compliant - if someone wants to label me as being noncompliant if I don't get a third shot, I think that's unfounded, but it's up to them). I haven't made that decision yet because the opportunity to make it isn't here for me yet. I'll evaluate the information that's out there (and that's reviewed or duplicated independently).

I feel that it's my obligation to do it - both to me, and to everyone else. Even though I can only play a small part as an individual.

Messages In This Thread

OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Ditto *NM*
Re: you guys are welcome...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Agree...
Re: Agree...
In short, probably not worth it...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Nomenclature....
Re: Nomenclature....
Yeah...
the last part is often lost...
My dad is 73...so is my mother...
Re: My dad is 73...so is my mother...
I think at 15 months shy of 90...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Vaccination vs. Get-the-disease
Wrong start here....maybe I wasn't clear...
A bit wider picture
I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
His point is pretty clear...
Recorded vs. actual Covid deaths
Absolutely
excess mortality...
Still missing the point..
Pfizer data
I think.....
Re: Pfizer data
Thank Goodness...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes
measuring the outcomes...
Thanks for a good discussion... *NM*
Re: OT -How(!) memory falters with time
Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
The overall response ...
Re: Not So Amazing, Rather Simple
some of us...
clarity is needed....
not to mention..
That is a distinctly modern effect....
One of the hazards of discussions...
I'm not surprised....
Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
separately..
Re: separately..
Of course.....
Re: Booster versus ... Seminal Work
you're right...
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Hi, Johanna...
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
It bothers me less...
Frankly...
Frankly...
How differences can arise
(Message Deleted by Poster)
:( *NM*
Re: Well said
Re: Well said
(Message Deleted by Poster)
To be fair...
Isn't this how we got here?
This was my point from the outset...
Ditto. *NM*
Re: Frankly...
Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects
Doesn't
The problem
Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem
I will provide more details
Re: I will provide more details
Will post
Re: Will post
Re: I will provide more details
Does roofing count?
we love..
Unfortunately....
Re: OT Doesn't
Well said...
pfizer data and persuasive...
Where did these data come from?
File and preliminary israeli data
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
side effects...
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
at 81...
FDA says no to widespread boost
Re: FDA says no to widespread boost
Alternate link to FDA actions
A good conclusion!!
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