Messages

Subject:
measuring the outcomes...

David Weaver
..we have the ability now to measure outcomes rather than interim steps.

Much of the fear early on was that the antibodies fade and thus once they did, we'd be just as vulnerable as prior (i'm not in that we - I don't think I've had covid, but rather just two vaccine shots instead).

That didn't turn out to be the case, but since fading antibodies made a better story (it was negative), the lack of reinfection of serious cases in any numbers, even after antibodies fade was left out of general public knowledge. Nobody asks why as a group (they grip the story about antibodies fading instead - it's easier to understand).

While it's nice to hope that doctors would be thinking about all of these same things, it's also true that they can't be going off like loose cannons about their curiosities to patients, so they test antibodies. I'm guessing there's a strong correlation with large antibody counts and lack of reinfection - but then the question was poorly answered about "what happens when the antibody test shows nothing - and now that we know that it's not the same thing as someone who didn't have covid previously - there's still a significant amount of protection - what doesn't the antibody test answer if the goal is to protect from severe disease and death?"

The answer to doing the best we can sometimes is acting in some cases (the vaccine shots early on), and may not be acting again for everyone in the longer term (but the data should be able to tell us that). The issue of delta getting by in breakthrough cases illustrates why - the important question right now is whether or not the israeli study data can be seen elsewhere. If reinfection with the vaccine is actually 7 times as likely as vaccine and covid or just prior covid (but woe be to the person who gets immunity the hard way in many cases), then use of the booster may create a worse outcome in the intermediate term, and then another variant may come along where it flips around again.

I'm kind of interested in not getting severely sick, or really even moderately sick (I've had my share of bronchitis - more than a continuous year's worth of time in my life - I feel like I've done my shift with being short of breath), but especially not dying. Part of our society has the will to chide folks for not wearing a mask walking outside or not washing their hands continuously, and I don't think that part of society (the kind who never wants to go to the doctor and be told to wait to see if something resolves on its own) will ever pick the better answer if the better answer isn't "doing something". I like the do something when it makes the result better, and don't when it makes it worse. If it's hard to tell which is better, then it doesn't really matter, but it's important for us to keep our feelers out to catch the situations where doing nothing (perhaps even only for a segment of the population) is a better strategy.

What causes me to lose a little faith is the driving idea that we can always manipulate things and even when we know an outcome is likely going to be statistically worse, we bury that because people feel better if "they're doing something".

Messages In This Thread

OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Ditto *NM*
Re: you guys are welcome...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Agree...
Re: Agree...
In short, probably not worth it...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Nomenclature....
Re: Nomenclature....
Yeah...
the last part is often lost...
My dad is 73...so is my mother...
Re: My dad is 73...so is my mother...
I think at 15 months shy of 90...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Vaccination vs. Get-the-disease
Wrong start here....maybe I wasn't clear...
A bit wider picture
I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
Re: I think the study data ...
His point is pretty clear...
Recorded vs. actual Covid deaths
Absolutely
excess mortality...
Still missing the point..
Pfizer data
I think.....
Re: Pfizer data
Thank Goodness...
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Re: OT - the Delta and Booster Thing
Interim Parts vs. Outcomes
measuring the outcomes...
Thanks for a good discussion... *NM*
Re: OT -How(!) memory falters with time
Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
Re: Isn't it amazing?
The overall response ...
Re: Not So Amazing, Rather Simple
some of us...
clarity is needed....
not to mention..
That is a distinctly modern effect....
One of the hazards of discussions...
I'm not surprised....
Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
separately..
Re: separately..
Of course.....
Re: Booster versus ... Seminal Work
you're right...
Re: Booster versus no-booster for the vaxxed
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Hi, Johanna...
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
Re: OT - COVID shots - one more thing
It bothers me less...
Frankly...
Frankly...
How differences can arise
(Message Deleted by Poster)
:( *NM*
Re: Well said
Re: Well said
(Message Deleted by Poster)
To be fair...
Isn't this how we got here?
This was my point from the outset...
Ditto. *NM*
Re: Frankly...
Re: Here are 30 000 reported side effects
Doesn't
The problem
Re: More Bridges! Was: The problem
I will provide more details
Re: I will provide more details
Will post
Re: Will post
Re: I will provide more details
Does roofing count?
we love..
Unfortunately....
Re: OT Doesn't
Well said...
pfizer data and persuasive...
Where did these data come from?
File and preliminary israeli data
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
side effects...
Re: pfizer data and persuasive...
at 81...
FDA says no to widespread boost
Re: FDA says no to widespread boost
Alternate link to FDA actions
A good conclusion!!
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