Wiley Horne
David,

“ Why is it such a burden to people to be dealing in the world of what's likely or not vs. fully mature outcome proof? ”

Your post is thought-provoking—enough to spin off a few subtopics as well.

Here’s a thought about the decisions we have all been making and observing:
To have any chance of slowing a geometrically-spreading contagion, one has to act now, not later. Waiting for proof does not defer action til later—do nothing is an act right now. An act to accept geometric spread right now.

There’s nothing deep about this—we all make decisions everyday on incomplete knowledge. We have to. You’re a mathematician, so I’ll put it this way—we’re all Bayesians in our lives.

Beyond this point, it does fet political, so I’ll stop here .

Wiley